Background
This is first quarter update of year three of this experiment. To read the 2nd year anniversary, last quarter’s update to this experiment please click here.
Performance to Date:
Bitcoin: $2,2165.44 ( 42.98% Return)
💪💪💪💪WE ARE BACK!!!!💪💪💪💪
Yes the Bitcoin price has finally broke out of its sideways boring price range and moved higher. Year to date Bitcoin is one of the best performing assets for 2023. Putting your money into Bitcoin would have earned the investor better returns than gold, bonds, and stock index funds. The reason for this upward price movement is still debated. The spot Bitcoin ETF bring pushed along by Blackrock is rumored to be approved in early January which would be the most obvious reason for this price pump. The hash rate has not slowed up reaching all time highs. While some bearish attacks have come in the form of burdensome regulation (looking at you Liz Warren) this has yet to cause the price to drop significantly.
Overall a good quarter to be a Bitcoiner. With everything that is going on in the world, wars, (Ukraine and Russia, and a new conflict with Israel and Palestine) banks blowing up, layoffs, political uncertainty with the 2024 election (Trump going to court, getting taken off ballots by zealous states) the price has held up quite well.
Stock Advisor: $1,793.85 (21.79% Return)
The stock market is back. Since the market thinks The Fed is in control, the rate hikes have stopped thus the markets took this as a bullish signal and went risk on by buying stocks . Stocks that were in the deep are now green. The only stock that is lagging is FVRR. The economy is still trying to find itself in this high interest rate environment but the impact on the Stock Advisor companies seem not to be faced too much.
One thing to be mindful of was prediction of a recession in 2023 which was going to cause the stock market to tank. By all metrics the recession never came. Did The Fed stick this soft landing? Brining down inflation while not destroying the labor market? A few banks blew up in the spring but other than that some may cheer The Fed as doing a good job. Soft landing achieved!!
One caveat we must add is the US government has been spending like CRAZY! Deficit spending as run amuck!! This could be the papering over the recession but 2024 will tell us for sure.
Conclusion
Two years and a quarter into this experiment the Bitcoin play is having double the success of Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor product. 42% return vs a 21% return by doing a dollar cost average approach. At the two year mark it was looking like Stock Advisor was going to run away from Bitcoin with higher returns but the price rip of Bitcoin has doubled up Stock Advisor.
As we head into 2024 the bullish setup for Bitcoin is almost too good to be true. The spot Bitcoin ETF, the halving coming mid spring, the media becoming more friendly and more regulation clarity is coming to the space could mean Bitcoin is setting up for a massive run up. But for stocks can we say the same? History has it a recession comes once the stock market has hit all time highs. Well we are at that point right now. Also rates are starting to come down. Meaning investors are looking for safety by buying bonds. The 10 year is creeping lower along with mortgage rates. Is a recession looming? If so how will these stock advisor companies fair? Only time will tell! But as this experiment is showcasing you can just buy Bitcoin and STFU.( as said by BritishHODL)
Now lets check on the passive index investors:
S&P
9/13/2021 — — > 4,468.72
12/29/2023 — — >4,769.83
Return of : 6.72%
Dow Jones
9/13/2021 — — — > 34,869.63
12/29/2023 — — — > 37,689.54
Return of: 8.08%
NASDAQ:
9/13/201 — -> 15,105.58
12/29/2023 — — — > 15,011.35
Return of : -0.62%
The passive investor is getting crushed just as expected. S&P and the Dow Jones are modest returns at best. Investing in the NASDAQ over this time period actually leaves the investor worst off. You add in all the inflation we experienced over the last few years the NASDAQ investor is way behind. One thing I will give credit to Stock Advisor is that it does beat index investing by a whole lot but it still lags behind Bitcoin.
As we enter into year 3 of this experiment it is clear that Bitcoin is the best thing an investor can do to protect their wealth.
Having a 40% return is fantastic plus you all the time you save by just buying and holding. No subscription fees, no management fees, no reading 10-Ks and trying to calculate the future net worth of a company based on current cash flows. None of that matters when you just buy Bitcoin. You buy it send it to cold storage and you just sit and wait as it is the scarcest asset on the planet and over time the planet will come to realize this. Paradise here I COME! 🌴🌴
Normally I give a little bitcoin tip after posting this. But the last article no one took the token. So now I am taking a different approach. If you read this and want a little bitcoin just hit me up on NOSTR. I’ll give away sats to each person who messages me on NOSTR and repeats the returns Bitcoin and Stock Advisor has thus far. See you on NOSTR
npub18zc85v0nkg7maw04nh4hhmzmnych876qygsxnq8nszwsk69tl9vscy44j4
(enter this Npub to any NOSTR client to find my profile)
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